From a Jets site - Non-Homer Favre post

Posted by: Sperm Edwards, Jetnation.com

At this point, I think this is too late. I have serious doubts as to Favre picking up an entirely different offense to what he's played in for some 15 straight years, as well as getting timing down with 5-6 new WR's and 3 new TE's. All in time for the season to start in a month. And on top of all of it, he's coming off a season that he absolutely wouldn't repeat even in Green Bay anyway.

Too many are idealizing a 39 year-old Brett Favre like he's a 29 year-old Peyton Manning that can do no wrong or like he'd be an automatic anything. Like it assures the team of anything other than enduring interceptions when he gets frustrated.

His numbers against good defenses last year wouldn't even make Kellen Clemens hold his head up high. His numbers against scrub defenses was off-the-charts good. But he still sucked against Philly, both games against Chicago, and actually did worse than Kellen Clemens against both Washington AND Dallas despite his 15 years of NFL experience & better talent around him at virtually every position on offense. And that season slammed shut with him chucking up one of his trademark, game/season-ending Favreceptions to the other team.

And I'm not saying Kellen Clemens is a better QB; right now he doesn't look markedly better than Brett Ratliff let alone Brett Favre. But for those quoting Favre's wonderful stats from 2007 - with a team & play book he knew COLD:

vs Washington:
Favre: 19/37 (51.4%) - 188 yds - 0 TD's, 2 INT's - (43.5 rating if anyone cares about that #)
Clemens: 23/42 (54.8%) - 226 yds - 1 TD, 0 INT's - (78.1 rating)

vs Dallas (they were both awful, but the point is Favre was not only no better; he was worse):
Favre: 5/14 (35.7%) - 56 yds - 0 TD's, 2 INT's - (8.9 rating)
Clemens: 12/27 (44.4%) - 142 yds - 0 TD's, 1 INT - (45.6 rating)


And we're to expect him to to so much better with a play book he's never seen before, terminology he's never used before, receivers he's never thrown to before, and a month to prepare for it all, at 39 years old? And this will mean better performances than he did in Green Bay?

Talk about rose-colored glasses.

this is totally a sample size problem right here. You can make any argument look good if you cherry pick the stats for what you want to say. I'm not saying Favre will be awesome, but to compare Clemens against Favre's 2 worst games in the regular season, including one where he got hurt, is borderline irresponsible.

Maybe Favre will have a tough time picking up the new offense, but the argument above certainly doesn't prove it

meh...the sample size is of favre going against good defenses. Something he never does, i can look up all the stats over the past 5 years and Favres numbers will be more than similar.

If you want to make the argument that he isn't very good against good defenses, that is fine with me. He has struggled many times in his career against top-tier defenses. How many QB's play very well against the top-defenses, over a statistically reliable period of time? 2 or 3 probably

If you want to do it in the manner he did above, it is irresponsible. especially in the NFL, when there are a ton of factors to consider. Any accredited statistician would agree with me. You CANNOT pull 2 performances out of a year and say that Clemens would be as good of an option against poor defenses. This posted message is exactly the kind of crap that gets me pissed off on the brewers board. Someone will have a 2 week streak of hitting well and people will be clamoring for the lineup to be changed, ignoring the fact that the player has had 5,000 career at bats and has produced at the level that is consistant with where he is in the lineup.

The problem is, there aren't anymore comparable instances. Unless you want to see if the 2004 Oregon Ducks played the 2004 Chicago Bears, Kellen has not played anyone else that Brett has played.

drago wrote:The problem is, there aren't anymore comparable instances. Unless you want to see if the 2004 Oregon Ducks played the 2004 Chicago Bears, Kellen has not played anyone else that Brett has played.

which is my point exactly. There is no history to suggest whether Clemens will be better or worse than Favre against tough defenses. It is really just going on your gut feeling.

Consider this:
comp att pct. yards td int rating
372 607 61.3 3,881 20 29 70.7
356 535 66.5 4,155 28 15 96.7



These are stats for the same player, 2 years apart. If you would look at the first season, you would surmise that this quarterback was a bad player. If you would only look at the second season, you'd rate this player as one of the best. This is why we have to wait until we have a big enough sample size to accurately judge a player's performance.

ohh sh*t drago is getting owned!!!

Sperm Edwards -----

The whole reason to get Favre, presumably, is to help us get over the hump against better defenses. This isn't 1997 anymore. The past 3 years is he really any better than anyone else against these types of teams?

2007:

(1) Phi: 23/42 - 206 - 0 - 1
(5) Chi: 29/40 - 322 - 1 - 2
(6) Was: 19/37 - 188 - 0 -2
(13) Dal: 5/14 - 56 - 0 - 2
(16) Chi: 17/32 - 153 - 0 - 2

TOTAL = 93/165 - 925 YDS - 1 TD - 9 INT's (QB rating = 51.7 for those who value this stat)

2006:

(keep in mind this excludes his crappy December games vs Detroit & Minnesota: 0 TD's, 5 INT's)

(1) Chi: 15/29 - 170 - 0 - 2
(4) Phi: 22/44 - 205 - 0 - 2
(9) Buf: 28/47 - 287 - 1 - 2
(11) NE: 5/15 - 73 - 0 - 0
(12) Sea: 22/36 - 266 - 1 - 3
(13) NYJ: 24/47 - 214 - 1 - 2
(17) Chi: 21/42 - 285 - 1 - 1

TOTAL: 137/260 - 1500 YDS - 4 TD's - 12 INT's (QB rating = 55.9)

2005:

(again, this doesn't include meltdowns against Cincy and both Detroit games: 1 TD, 8 INT's)

(3) TB: 14/24 - 195 - 2 - 3
(4) Car: 28/47 - 303 - 4 - 1 (the only good one of the bunch)
(9) Pit: 20/35 - 214 - 0 - 1
(12) Phi: 15/33 - 171 - 1 - 2
(13) Chi: 31/58 - 277 - 0 - 2
(15) Bal: 14/29 - 144 - 0 - 2
(16) Chi: 30/51 - 351 - 0 - 4
(17) Sea: 21/37 - 259 - 1 - 1

TOTAL: 173/314 - 1880 YDS - 8 TD's - 16 INT's (QB rating = 60.2)


And this is what would lead us past the likely AFC playoff teams like NE, Indy, SD, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville? If the teams outlined above held opposing QB's to those numbers, each of them would be considered among the most devastatingly tough pass defenses in NFL history. If Pennington or Clemens put up these numbers (and like the Packers, the Jets lost 16 of these 20 games), fans all over the tri-state area would be calling for their heads, listing the many ways in which they suck.

Please. It's not the 2007 Lions & Vikings pass defenses we have to get past to get to the Superbowl.